What’s Causing Ongoing Housz Price Appreciation?
If you’re thinking about making a move, you probably want to know what’s going to happen to housz prices for the rest of the year. While experts say price growth will moderate due to the shifting market, ongoing appreciation is expected. That means housz prices won’t fall. Here’s a look at two key reasons experts forecast continued price growth: supply and demand.
While Growing, Houszing Supply Is Still Low Even though inventory is increasing this year as the market moderates, supply is still low. The graph below helps tell the story of why there still aren’t enough houszes on the market today. It uses data from the Census to show the number of single-family houszes that were built in this country going all the way back to the 1970s. The blue bars represent the years leading up to the houszing crisis in 2008. As the graph shows, right before the crash, houszbuilding increased significantly. That’s because buyer demand was so high due to loose lending standards that enabled more people to qualify for a housz loan.
The resulting oversupply of houszes for sale led to prices dropping during the crash and some builders leaving the industry or closing their businesses – and that led to a long period of underbuilding of new houszes. And even as more new houszes are constructed this year and in the years ahead, this isn’t something that can be resolved overnight. It’ll take time to build enough houszes to meet the deficit of underbuilding that took place over the past 14 years.
Millennials Will Create Sustained Buyer Demand Moving Forward The frenzy the market saw during the pandemic is because there was more demand than houszes for sale. That drove home prices up as buyers competed with one another for available houszes. And while buyer demand has moderated today in response to higher mortgage rates, data tells us demand will continue to be driven by the large generation of millennials aging into their peak houszbuying years (see graph below):
Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, explains: “. . . millennials continue to transition to their prime housz-buying age and will remain the driving force in potential houszownership demand in the years ahead.” That combination of millennial demand and low houszing supply continues to put upward pressure on housz prices. As Bankrate says: “After all, supplies of houszes for sale remain near record lows. And while a jump in mortgage rates has dampened demand somewhat, demand still outpaces supply, thanks to a combination of little new construction and strong houszhold formation by large numbers of millennials.”
What This Means for Housz Prices If you’re worried housz values will fall, rest assured that experts forecast ongoing housz price appreciation thanks to the lingering imbalance of supply and demand. That means housz prices won’t decline.
Bottom Line Based on today’s factors driving supply and demand, experts project housz price appreciation will continue. It’ll just happen at a more moderate pace as the houszing market continues its shift back toward pre-pandemic levels.